11Cincinnati154011Kansas City1532 27Chicago141927Cleveland1409 25N.Y. Jets144025N.Y. Jets1458 9Philadelphia15459New Orleans1540 2New England16752New England1653 32Tennessee133932Oakland1346 29Tampa Bay137729Tampa Bay1358 RANKTEAMRATINGRANKTEAMRATING 10Arizona154110Pittsburgh1536 We relaunched our NFL Elo power ratings on Thursday with a nifty interactive that lets you track where your team stands and how likely it is to win each game. But Elo isn’t the only statistical power rating out there; in fact, our NFL previews used predictions and rankings generated by ESPN’s new Football Power Index (FPI), a system of far greater complexity.1While Elo simply takes last year’s overall end-of-season ratings and regresses them to the mean, FPI adds some intricacies: It breaks a team’s quality down into components that measure its offense, defense and special teams, incorporates Vegas expectations, and employs subjective survey data from NFL experts. Since we plan to use both metrics in our NFL coverage throughout the season, we thought it would be interesting to look at how closely the two ratings mirror each other, as well as which teams fare better in each. (Note: To make an apples-to-apples comparison, I converted FPI to the same scale as Elo. I also updated the Elo-equivalent FPI ratings of New England and Pittsburgh to reflect Thursday night’s season-opening game.) 8Pittsburgh15528Baltimore1553 23St. Louis147723Minnesota1477 26Cleveland142226Chicago1444 28Oakland138928Washington1394 16San Francisco152916Buffalo1510 18Houston150518Detroit1501 30Washington137130Jacksonville1351 24Atlanta146224San Francisco1463 For the most part, Elo and FPI agree about the landscape of the league; the correlation coefficient between the two metrics is 0.94. But the fit isn’t perfect. 17San Diego152317Houston1508 13Detroit153813Arizona1526 12Kansas City154012Miami1530 20Miami148420N.Y. Giants1496 1Seattle16781Green Bay1653 22Minnesota147922St. Louis1484 5Dallas15905Denver1622 15Buffalo153415Carolina1515 4Denver15954Indianapolis1635 3Green Bay16013Seattle1642 6Indianapolis15816Dallas1592 ELOFPI 7Baltimore15777Philadelphia1564 14Carolina153614Cincinnati1525 31Jacksonville135731Tennessee1349 19New Orleans148619San Diego1497 Elo thinks more highly of 17 teams — including the San Francisco 49ers,2Probably because Elo has no idea they lost so much talent during the offseason. Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks3Thus continuing Elo’s ongoing crush on the Seahawks. and San Diego Chargers — than FPI does. Among the teams that FPI favors, on the other hand, are the Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons.It’s tough to pinpoint exactly why the discrepancies exist in many cases (so many factors go into the FPI’s construction, in particular), but they’re worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. 21N.Y. Giants148021Atlanta1495

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